The relevant Covid-19 fatality rate

Much has been written in the past few days about whether the case fatality rate (CFR) for Covid-19 is actually much lower than the original estimate of about 3 to 4%. Globally, the CFR is highly variable ranging  from half a  percent in Germany to nearly 10% in Italy. The difference could be due to underlying differences in the populations or to the extent of testing. South Korea, which has done very wide scale testing, has a CFR of around 1.5%. However, whether the CFR is high or low is not the important parameter.  The number we must determine is the population fatality rate because even if most of the people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 have mild or even no symptoms so the CFR is low, if most people are susceptible and the entire world population gets the virus then even a tenth of a percent of 7 billion is still a very large number.

What we don’t know yet is how much of the population is susceptible. Data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess showed that about 20% of the passengers and crew became infected but there were still some social distancing measures in place after the first case was detected so this does not necessarily imply that 80% of the world population is innately immune. A recent paper from Oxford argues that about half of the UK population may already have been infected and is no longer susceptible. However, I redid their analysis and find that widespread infection although possible is not very likely (details to follow — famous last words) but this can and should be verified by testing for anti-bodies in the population. The bottom line is that we need to test, test and test both for the virus and for anti-bodies before we will know how bad this will be.

New paper in Cell

 2018 Dec 10. pii: S0092-8674(18)31518-6. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2018.11.026. [Epub ahead of print]

Intrinsic Dynamics of a Human Gene Reveal the Basis of Expression Heterogeneity.

Abstract

Transcriptional regulation in metazoans occurs through long-range genomic contacts between enhancers and promoters, and most genes are transcribed in episodic “bursts” of RNA synthesis. To understand the relationship between these two phenomena and the dynamic regulation of genes in response to upstream signals, we describe the use of live-cell RNA imaging coupled with Hi-C measurements and dissect the endogenous regulation of the estrogen-responsive TFF1 gene. Although TFF1 is highly induced, we observe short active periods and variable inactive periods ranging from minutes to days. The heterogeneity in inactive times gives rise to the widely observed “noise” in human gene expression and explains the distribution of protein levels in human tissue. We derive a mathematical model of regulation that relates transcription, chromosome structure, and the cell’s ability to sense changes in estrogen and predicts that hypervariability is largely dynamic and does not reflect a stable biological state.

KEYWORDS:

RNA; chromosome; estrogen; fluorescence; heterogeneity; imaging; live-cell; single-molecule; steroid; transcription

PMID: 30554876

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2018.11.026

Mosquito experiment concluded

It’s hard to see from the photo but when I checked my bucket after a week away, there were definitely a few mosquito larvae swimming around. There was also an impressive biofilm on the bottom of the bucket. It took less than a month for mosquitoes to breed in a newly formed pool of stagnant water. My son also noticed that a nearby flower pot with water only a few centimeters deep also had larvae. So the claims that mosquitos will breed in tiny amounts of stagnant water is true.IMG_3158

Mosquito update

IMG_2917It’s been about two weeks since I first set out my bucket, although I had to move it to a less obtrusive location. Still no signs of mosquito larvae, although judging from my bite frequency even with mosquito repellant, mosquito activity is still high in my garden. I see the occasional insect trapped (they are not really floating since at their size water is highly viscous) in the surface and there is a nice collection of plant debris at the bottom. The water level seems a little bit higher. It has rained at least once every two days since my first post although it has also been very hot so the input seems mostly balanced by the evaporative loss. I’m starting to believe that mosquitos have their prefered gestation grounds that they perpetually use and only exploit new locales when necessary.

Audio of SIAM talk

Here is an audio recording synchronized to slides of my talk a week and a half ago in Pittsburgh. I noticed some places where I said the wrong thing such as conflating neuron with synapse.  I also did not explain the learning part very well. I should point out that we are not applying a control to the network.  We train a set of weights so that given some initial condition, the neuron firing rates follow a specified target pattern. I also made a joke that implied that the Recursive Least Squares algorithm dates to 1972. That is not correct. It goes back much further back than that. I also take a pot shot at physicists. It was meant as a joke of course and describes many of my own papers.