Talk at Howard

Here are the slides for my talk at the “Howard University Math-Bio Virtual Workshop on Mitigation of Future Pandemics”  last Saturday. One surprising thing (to me) the model predicted, shown on slide 40, is that the median fraction of those previously infected or vaccinated (or both) was 40% or higher during the omicron wave. I was pleased and relieved to then find that recent CDC serology results validate this prediction.

One thought on “Talk at Howard

  1. last time i was at howard was last july in the hospital ER . (i had a previous good experience there for a broken wrist i got hiking so i chose to go there). A relative drove me there and i had diagnosed my condition using wikipedia as alcoholic polyneuropathy– in one day i was paralyzed waist down (tho i usually did walks of 6 miles + /day at least twice a week in rock creek). i guessed alcohol because i drank a fair amount of beer. i didnt actually see a doctor there since alcohol seemed reasonable. (also because then the culprit and blame is clear— ‘we warned u’)

    HU sent me to kensington rehab and then a neurologist who said i had CIDP (AD –autoimmune disease ) most likely–basically not related to alcohol (except as a risk factor.
    (i had been been bitten by a snake the year before election day 2020 which likely was a greater risk factor and that also led to some paralyses –i never had a doctor look at the snake bite until 6 months later after it didnt heal because it seemed to be healing. but i was later told it was herb’s palsy)

    i wonder if i had gone to sibley ER if my trajectory would have differed (ie CIDP diagnosed earlier rather than be placed in the pool i am in of gunshot and od and stroke victims, ‘severe mental illness’ (sort of does apply to people who pick up snakes the same day they voted — Nov ? 2020– a day that will live in infamy. voting in DC for president is mental illness or at least a waste of time—often equivalent because then you make poor time constrained judgement calls and get snake bitten. ).
    most people here are not expected to recover

    HU tends to be overun with the average street stuff in DC so rare conditions might not be noticed and its even worse the further you get from hospitals (rehab people dont deal with medical diagnosis but have a uniform or universal treatment
    ‘ there is no such thing as failure all there is is excuses’. )

    my paralasys in july for which i went to HU occured 2 weeks after my 2nd moderna vacc shot.

    although i realize its unlikely given the rarity of CIDP and the huge number of people who used moderna vax there are quite few CiDP and GPS (related AD) people in email support groups who think they got it fron vax, and GPS is considered at times be due to that.

    i would say in retrospect anyone with a risk factor or untreated condition (in my case the snake bite) i would advise against vax– just distance and masks. . i only got the vax basically due to hassling or what i consider harassement from a relative. My lfestyle was already almost risk free since i masked, stayed distant and actually mostly stayed away from everyone but a small number of familiars.

    there is a sort of attitude that everyone has to be the same even if their lifestyles are almost totaly different. u might see someone once a year but for that are supposed to reorganize everything. ( i even managed to sign away my power of attorney and rights to all i had in the preocess . its unwise to be overly trusting of those who sau they have your best interests in mind )

    in DC they made an unwritten rule to seperate people with low level criminal offenses into ‘tracks’ because some otherwise dont survive. i dont think health has quite reached that kind of approach . once you get tracked theres no way out.

    net effect is im wheelchair bound for now 8 months and very possibly for life, and i get best medical care medicaid has to offer ( which means you get on a list and unfortunately it doesnt include physician assisted suicide tho the free assisted living is a slower version of that— watch tv treruns and eat pasta unless you get sent to ER again for bleeding ulcers…or can manage to get out in the parking lot) .


    the most interrsting thing is how covid has merged into political psychology.
    both far right and left haave sort of merged on this issue. Others get herded into packs.


    It would be interesting or miraculous is if any of these had any application to ADs or whhether standard approach is all there is which for many means a fulfiilled life watching tv reruns . if one is lucky something current like ukraine war people glance at . mind-body mathematics.


    different note by tepper goll, sort of eccentric HU prof i once met; i dont undersand this but appears to be a kind of ‘lorentz ether theory’ in which the speed ofl ight is not a constant . he has much more recent versions


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s