I’m currently at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute for a workshop on Computational challenges in integrative biological modeling. The slides for my talk on using Bayesian methods for parameter estimation and model comparison are here.
Abstract: Differential equation models are often used to model biological systems. An important and difficult problem is how to estimate parameters and decide which model among possible models is the best. I will argue that Bayesian inference provides a self-consistent framework to do both tasks. In particular, Bayesian parameter estimation provides a natural measure of parameter sensitivity and Bayesian model comparison automatically evaluates models by rewarding fit to the data while penalizing the number of parameters. I will give examples of employing these approaches on ODE and PDE models.